Thursday, September 29, 2011

Recap: $AUDUSD stopped out

When I entered the $AUDUSD short yesterday morning, I thought that I would be in this one for the long haul.  But all good things come to an end, some more quickly than others. 

Reasons for being stopped out
I was stopped out just above .9800, giving me a profit of a little over 100 bips.  The stop was brought down based on a clear indication that several key resistance levels were broken:
  1. The downtrend line on the 15 minute chart
  2. The resistance line at .9775 where the last key breakdown took place
  3. The .9800 whole number level where another breakdown previously took place
AUDUSD 15m 09-29-2011
What did I learn?
At this point in my development as a trader, one important aspect of each trade is whether I learned something.  As I was reviewing this trade last night as it was still trending lower, I realized that .9700 was a key support level for at least 2 reasons:
  1. On a 30 or 60 minute chart, it's clear to see that there were many tests of the .9700 level,  each resulting in a rejection.  The clues left behind were the lower wicks (bullish signs).
  2. Looking at the 2 swings prior to my entry, the .9700 level was a near perfect Fibonacci extension
AUDUSD 60m 09-29-2011
Next time...
In the future, I'll have to consider taking profits, or at least partial profits at those key levels caused by a confluence of factors.  But overall, I felt the execution on this trade went relatively well.

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