Showing posts with label ouch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ouch. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Hello, Mr. Revenge

Total gross profits:  $-787.50  -15.75 ES points
Total trades:  8  [2 scratch]
Accuracy:  0.0%    [Yes, ZERO]
Execution score: 50.00%
Opportunity cost: $500.00  +10.00 points [Yes, 10 full points left on table!]

It seems like once I write that a certain mental challenge seems to have been overcome, I get jinxed, and it comes back, like a ton of bricks on my head.  


It was only a few days ago when I wrote the following:
I knew within the first hour that this was potentially a dangerous day where you could easily get chopped up to bits.  But you know what, I didn't get chopped up, and I truly believe that behavior is becoming something of the past.  I'm now less likely now to be tempted to enter the murky waters, especially if I sense danger, since I have a greater respect for the markets.  And I'm not as interested in pulling out the machine gun just for the sake of action caused by boredom.

I believe Rogue Grove is finally starting to grow up, and it feels like some sort of milestone has been reached.  This is encouraging, because I'm still just getting started on my grand journey ahead, and every little bit helps a lot.
"Foot in mouth" seems like an appropriate comment given my performance today, but on the bright side, with 8 trades today, at least it's clear I didn't bring out the machine gun.  

In fact, I really didn't feel as if I was in any emotional extremes at all -- the day rolled out in a relatively calm and uneventful manner, given the circumstances of such sloppy execution.  And a strong afternoon comeback mentality didn't really enter my mind either, which was strange.  Have I changed?

Looking back, one warning sign was when I had 4 trades during the 10:00-11:00 hour.  I usually have at most, 1 trade per 30 minute period.  So I did end up taking a break over lunch, as Greg suggested back in November:

One idea I heard somewhere, and I unfortunately had to implement it a few times, is this. Say your max loss limit for the day is -$1200. When you hit -$800, just walk away from your workstation and do something else for 20-30 minutes or so. Go have coffee, take a walk...but do something. Then when you come back, evaluate whether or not you think you should continue trading for the day, and what changes you think you should make.

When I did this, it was probably 50/50 the times I resumed trading that day. The other days, I felt like I was just out of tune with the market and was better off waiting for a better environment.

The advantage you have is you have a system you trust that generates a lot of signals...which means even if you leave for a half hour, you're not throwing away the last opportunity of the day.
The series of events that triggered my poor performance:
  • I missed the first trade of the day -- it made +2  
    • [Fear of missing out, actualized]
  • Prior to the 10AM economic news release, I knowingly entering a short trade -- I knew it was a gamble, got 1.50 slippage on stop loss   
    • [I wanted a quick win juiced by news...ended up with salt and lemon juice in wound]
  • The next 2 trades were stop losses by just 1 or 2 ticks   
    • [They were good setups, but bad luck]
  • Mr. Revenge then came for a short visit  
    • [The tipping point, cue the scary music...]
Whenever I run into a challenging situation, I welcome the opportunity for another similar scenario to take place again, and again, and again, until I finally get it right.  I'm certain there will be another day where I'll have 2-3 full stop outs in a row, all getting tagged by a tick or two.

So the next time that happens, I will most certainly remember this day.  And I will either scale back to become much more selective, or simply stop trading.  Now it's time to reset, regroup, reevaluate my trading plan, and get ready for the next day with a clean mind.