Is this for real?

Today happened to be an interesting day where the ES market felt a little different from the prior couple weeks.  The "usual" market rattling news out of Europe seemed to put the thinly traded intraday morning session into a "psudo-psychotic-I-might-go-postal-on-you" mode. 

In hindsight, the Diamond Setups (DS) system still worked, and it's the usual operator error (my errors) that didn't either pull the trigger properly (using the excuse of how something's "strange" with the price action) or by not properly analyzing or being prepared for the trade (sloppy mistakes).

I'm a believer that it's good to experience as many adverse market conditions as possible, since that's one of the key ways to learn how to get through the tough times.  The next time I sense these "unusual" market conditions, I'll be much better prepared to adapt accordingly (in other words, stick to the plan).

As usual, I still had a great time today learning in the chatroom -- lots of good vibes and support from Renato (@RenaTrader) and the other members.  But since I made "only" $150 gross today (Tuesday, October 25) which was much less than what was possible, I experienced a slight letdown.  That's when I produced a report from my Tradervue.com trading journal to see how well I have done since I started learning, and I began thinking.....Is this for real?

So for the sake of full disclosure, here are the caveats before the excerpt of the report from Tradervue:

• From the "Is this statistically significant?" perspective, one could argue that there isn't enough data, and that this is mostly noise, dumb luck, etc.
• Remember, these are SIM (simulation) results, so they include a fair number of fantasy fills.  Since I use limit orders for entry and profit targets that are usually near the swing high/low extremes, it's not likely that you will be able to buy on the bid or sell on the offer with any meaningful frequency.  And my stop orders on SIM do not usually include any slippage.
  
• There are 3 days missing from results.  I've written about this, how I went off my rocker for 3 days trading a majority of non-DS setups, so I've excluded it from this report.  I still feel the shame, and rightly so.
• The gap between plan vs. actual is still quite large, believe it or not.  If I was scored against my ability to execute against the system, I'd be close to getting fired.  But for my personality and trading style, this particular system seems to provide a good margin for error.  However, time will tell once I'm trading a live account.
  

Regardless of the caveats, the numbers are respectable (especially for me), and seeing the P&L curve over the past 2+ weeks gave me a sense of confidence that "Hey, maybe, just maybe, I have a real decent shot at this." 

* * * * *

Here are my results from the past couple days. 


Monday, October 24
Total gross profits:  $487.50
Total trades:  6
Accuracy:  67%
Contracts per trade: 2

NOTES: Missed some good trades in the pre-market as well as some during he regular session, and also cancelled an order (from fear) that would have filled a few ticks from the high of the day.


 
Tuesday, October 25
Total gross profits:  $150
Total trades:  5
Accuracy:  80%
Contracts per trade: 2

NOTES: Thinly traded morning impacted by news out of Europe shook up the markets (me) for a bit.  Took a very cautious stance, missed some trades, and scratched a couple that would have been profitable.  Reminder, just stick with the plan.