Bottom line, I took ZERO trades today.
It's not to say there weren't any interesting setups -- there were many that I would have taken in the past, and many would have been quite profitable. However, I had my plan to follow, and for whatever reason, "missing" those trades did not bother me. I've heard enough people say that's just the way it'll be and you just have to suck it up and deal. So I'm adjusting, and surprisingly, I feel fine. My mission is to follow my plan, I did, and there's a sense of accomplishment to it.
Although I didn't take any of these below, here are a few charts of interest and some that "got away":
$GG - 5min
GG is not likely a chart I would trade since it's a bit choppy, but this chart stood out for a few reasons.
- The trendline on the chart below the two swing lows of the morning was extended upwards. And as you can see, it helped to predict timing of when the consolidation broke out (first blue up arrow).
- I also realized that the R3 pivot levels were off by default, so when I turned them on, it was nice to see that the consolidation took place between the R3 and the 161.8% Fib Extension.
- Ignore the 2nd blue up arrow, since that was just something I wanted to track (I had a feeling it would fail)
- But look at the consolidation in the light blue box. It faked out on the downside, then ended up making a double top. Once price returns back to the consolidation range, this is usually a sign of a reversal pattern. It worked in this case, and the vwap was a good target.
PANL had a relatively wide bid/ask spread around $0.05 to $0.15 or more, so it had choppy price action. However, the first blue up arrow was maybe what I would consider a B grade "pullback to the retracement zone" trade. It looked pretty good, but it just didn't have a nice green hammer bar -- I'm looking for near perfect setups. And I'd say this was a pretty big fish that got away.
The second blue up arrow indicates a "tell" that prices are about to go higher. Multiple bullish candlesticks supported by a rising 5ema was a good sign of potentially more bullish action. I'm not sure if I would have taken this trade, since the price action was still choppy, but this is a chart I will study further.
$NEM - 5min
When NEM setup on the 4th bar with that green hammer (first blue arrow), my gut was telling me to take it, it's going higher. However, I couldn't justify taking the setup since it wasn't a setup in my trading plan. Sure, I could have fudged and called it a Beyond the Opening Range High setup or something else, but I'm going to be honest with myself.
The 2nd trade was also something that nearly screaming to buy. It was essentially 2 different setups, the vlb (vwap line bounce), as well as a not as well ranked "pullback to the opening range high." The vlb setup provided an excellent entry on the 2min chart, provided little heat, and the risk reward was great. But again, the setups were not a part of my plan, so they were not taken.
As mentioned earlier, zero trades today but I feel like I accomplished a lot. I wonder if that's how Simon feels after rejecting and demoralizing so many people and crushing their dreams? Well, at least the markets don't even know or care what I say about it.