Showing posts with label ft71. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ft71. Show all posts

Monday, May 6, 2013

2 Years of Trading - Lessons Learned (Part 3 of 3) - The Mental Game

This is a continuation of the prior posts in this series: 
LESSONS LEARNED (Part 1 of 3): TRADING FUNDAMENTALS
LESSONS LEARNED (Part 2 of 3): THE LEARNING PROCESS


LESSONS LEARNED (Part 3 of 3): THE MENTAL GAME

Once you're fortunate to find a style that works for you, it's all mental
Perhaps it's human nature to want to deviate from something you know works.  Let's say you have a trading system that's right 95% of the time and generates 5:1 reward/risk.  You've found the holy grail! 

Doesn't matter, our mind plays tricks on us.  It's easy to think we can do even better and get 100% accurate and/or generate a 10:1 reward/risk.  Or maybe the holy grail is a counter trend system but you like going with the trend and catching the big moves, so it doesn't quite fit your personality.  You tweak the system to the point where it's no longer the system that originally had an edge.

When we deviate from our system just that one time, the next rule break becomes just a little easier to do, and so on...  Your mental discipline starts to crack.  And if you don't watch out, it eventually snowballs into something very ugly. Yes, this has happened to me many times.

Even if you know you have a system that works and fits your personality, staying disciplined to consistently execute your trades, through the good times and bad, requires considerable psychological efforts.  This is especially true when you're not at your mental best due to lack of sleep, personal issues, illness, etc.  Awareness of the state of your mind and being able to act appropriately, is key criteria for success.

So once you've achieved a certain level of trading ability, managing your trading psychology becomes one of the biggest factors to successful trading. A great instructor of the mental aspects of trading is FuturesTrader71 (FT71) who is a part of Stage 5 Trading.  His webinar #3, available via a donation to charity, is something I consider a trading classic.  Recommended to all types of traders who have a solid understanding of trading fundamentals and want to get to the next level.

There are also a lot of great books about trading psychology available written by Brett Steenbarger, Mark Douglas, Ari Kiev, Ruth Barrons Roosevelt, Denise Shull, Steve Ward, to name a few.  But look in any other performance based field, such as golf, baseball, or even archery which I wrote about last year, and there are some real gems.

I have found the mental challenge of trading similar to dieting or exercise.  Once you find a type of diet or exercise program that works for you, it's a matter of "simply" sticking with the program, with slight tweaks along the way, day after day, week after week, and so on.  Much easier said than done!  I've accepted the fact that I will need to constantly work on my mental game in order help ensure my long term success.

"Successful" behavior in the corporate world, could lead to failure in trading
Those who cross over from the professional fields or corporate environments seem to have extra challenges with retail trading.  Those who have been successful in their respected fields are used to getting their ways by managing others to help accomplish your goals, always taking the initiative and action to make things happen, and knowing how to successfully politic (BS) and influence the origination.  When things go wrong, their ability to act and quickly do "something" gives the perception and aura of confidence and competency.

But utilize those behaviors within certain aspects of trading and it's good recipe for failure.  The market is always in charge, it's the ultimate boss, and it's never wrong.  You can't tell it what to do, you can only react and be submissive to it (price).  The market doesn't care how confident you appear to be, it just doesn't care about you, period.

If you constantly take the initiative to be in a trade so that it appears you're doing something (looking like you're working hard) instead of being patient waiting for your setup, it could mean you're overtrading or rogue trading.  And if you're "wrong" and lose money on a trade, then trying to take immediate action to fix the situation (without a plan) most likely means you're revenge trading.  We've seen this many times by politicians and corporate types as a "knee jerk" reaction to an event.  But do this to the markets, and it will most certainly punish you, if not this time, then later.

I come "brainwashed" from years in the corporate world, so I can now clearly see how many aspects of good corporate behavior can be so counter-intuitive to good trading behavior.  So the longer you've been successful in the corporate world, the longer it may take for you to truly change your behavior when you begin trading.  However, constantly being aware of your behavior is one step that could help shorten the learning curve.

Finding true mental breaks is important
Like most who are passionate (addicted?) about the markets, I find it tough to switch gears and focus on non-trading activities.  Without checks and balances, I could probably spend 16+ hours day, just about 7 days a week studying the markets (again, addicted?).  But I'm finding that having the ability to take a true mental break has been critical to create balance and prevent burnout (and prove to myself, I can stop anytime, unlike an addict, ha!).

Most have an activity they do regularly that will switch the focus of the mind from trading to something else.  If you're a daytrader, some traders find it helpful to have a diversion to help deal with the boredom of trading, or as a way to cool off after a bad losing streak.  Even a swing trader needs to help balance their days in order to stay sharp and ready for a setup.  Unlike a daytrader, swing setups happen much less often, so missing one could impact your overall performance with greater impact.

So what is a true mental break?  Examples I've heard include: meditation, listening to music, playing a musical instrument, triathlons, mountain bike racing, yoga, reading (non-trading) books, learning new languages, writing a blog, cleaning the house, yard work, etc.  The important part is that your mind gets completely engaged in some other activity completely devoid of anything trading related. In my case, also having a couple young kids most certainly helps to creates a break, whether I like it or not.

I've personally found that group exercise classes can be very motivating.  When you're in a kickboxing class with a few 60-70 year old grandma types demonstrating clearly that you don't want to get into a fight with them, it's quite the motivation to keep up and not look like a wimpy girly-man.  Consequently, unless you maintain maximum focus and get totally absorbed in the class, you will likely embarrass yourself.  So not only is it a great mental break, it's also great for your health.

A hobby I've had is to roast my own coffee, primarily for espresso shots.  Ever since moving away from the SF Bay Area where there were many amazing artisanal coffee roasters and cafes, I got spoiled and couldn't find the same level of quality and freshness in my current neighborhood.  Yes, I became a coffee snob.

So I started to roast coffee on my own and quickly realized that what seems so simple, is full of never ending complexity and nuances.  But most importantly, working on this hobby requires absolute concentration and focus, which for me, results in a complete mental break from trading.  Plus, having a great shot of espresso to get the day started is a huge positive benefit.

In the end, it's important that I take these true mental breaks so that I can maintain some semblance of a balanced life.  When that happens, my trading becomes more centered, clearer, and generally improves.  This also spills over throughout all aspects of my life in a very positive way.

Plan your breaks from trading...and DO IT
As mentioned above, I've learned that taking a true mental break throughout the day is important.  I seem to do better when I go exercise mid-morning, shortly after the market opens.  Since I'm primarily swing trading, this is not an issue, since I basically adjust my orders/positions shortly after the open.  However, even for daytraders, I believe it's very helpful to take a significant break during the lunch hour.

And more often than not, it's those days I do NOT feel like taking a break (because I'm feeling emotions about something market related), are the days when I truly need to force myself to get away.  Otherwise, I've become aware that I become too fixated about something, and lose sight of the bigger picture.

On a longer timeframe, such as every 2-3 months (or whatever works best for you), taking a week completely  away from trading seems essential for good mental health.  Otherwise, you'll be subject to burn out since trading (especially daytrading) can be so intense.  I find it's very hard to get completely away, but remind myself, the market will always be there. 

Explore, learn, push your boundaries...but know when to stop trying so hard.
It's no secret how some of the best players in the NBA (or any other sports) such as Kobe Bryant and Lebron James, have incredible work ethics.  At their elite levels, there's not much of a difference in physical abilities, so a lot of of their edge comes from honing their mental game through rigorous hard work and focused practice.

Growing up, I used to think that once someone became a superstar, they are simply so good that they can just kick back and continue to perform at peak levels.  Well, how wrong I was.  Being a superstar requires tremendous passion and dedication to never stop learning and pushing your boundaries, since everyone else is doing the same.  You have to keep pushing hard simply to maintain and/or improve, but it's so easy to let it all go.

Trading is similar.  When you first start learning, you need to constantly explore and learn everything you can so that you can eventually figure out what works for you (your strengths) and what doesn't.  It's OK to make mistakes, but for the sake of progress, you have to continue to focus hard on areas for improvement based on discovering your strengths and weaknesses gained through painful experience. 

I've gotten to a point where there's a certain style, timeframe, and setups that seem to work best for me.  However, I'm still lured at times to "chase success", although thank goodness it's no where near what it used to be.  In the past when I read about a successful trader, I wanted to quickly put aside what I was doing, and learn how to trade just them.

But now that I'm finally figuring out what works for me after trying (and failing) so many different trading styles and methodologies, my focus has become more on maintaining the proper focus as well as refining a process so that I can replicate it every day.  Now when I read about a successful trader, I understand what type of trader they are, and accept the fact that I can/can't trade like them because I've already explored it in the past.

Now that I don't need to work as hard to figure out what works for me, I realize it's becoming more important to know when and what specific areas to back off from (or stop chasing).  Like stop trying so hard to be like or be influenced by someone else, or stop trying to force a trade in market conditions that isn't suited for my style, or stop trading simply out of boredom.  I consider this a sign that I need to continue to work hard on my mental discipline, and most likely, this work work will never end.

Golf is a good analogy.  Getting good at the fundamentals of golf takes years.  But after a while, you will realize what type of player you are, and whether you are the type that can drive the ball 300+ yards.  You may really want to be a long drive golfer, but may never get there -- it's just not your strength.  At some point, you will realize that to improve, you need to focus on different aspect of your game.  And along the way when you stop trying to swing so hard, you realize that the ball actually goes farther with greater consistency and accuracy!

In trading, I've learned that I need to always push hard in many areas, but then also realize that I need to back off in other areas.  Knowing which area to focus on and to back away from requires a lot of awareness. 

I'm still as passionate as ever about trading, but feeling more detached about every trade
Maybe it's the 1,000+ revenge and rogue trades I've taken over the past couple years that have finally gotten much of the overtrading out of my system.  After seeing time and time again how taking trades based on negative emotions results in a negative P&L, common sense might finally be making it through my thick skull. 

It's common to hear some say that you should not feel any emotions when you're trading.  I don't completely agree with that, since we're all different, and since we all react to situations in our own personal ways.  Have you ever watched how Paul Tudor Jones traded back in the '80s?   He's far from emotionless when he's trading, that's for certain!

Although I've always known, I have finally started to believe and accept that the outcome of each individual trade is essentially random.  We don't truly know how a particular trade will turn out, however, we have total control over whether we enter the trade, at what point the trade is wrong so that we exit with a loss, as well as where we exit if the trade is profitable.

Assuming we have a plan, there's simply not much else we can do after we're in a trade, other than to follow the trade plan.  When you first start trading, this is the most exciting part, being in the trade.  But these days, it's relatively boring, and that's good because being emotionally detached helps me to better ensure that I follow my plan.  And over time, it seems like I'm becoming both more detached as well as intuitive, which then helps me to follow my process and trade plan..

Here's another quirky way I've come to understand and accept this particular type of detachment.  After decades of making hundreds of boxes of mac & cheese in my life, I'm still as passionate as ever about it.  But unlike the first few exciting times I made it all by myself, carefully following the directions, I'm detached and unemotional when I'm preparing it now.  I don't even need to read the directions on the box anymore, the process is pretty much intuitive and on autopilot.  It just took a lot of time and experience to reach this stage.

Develop your sense of awareness, and more importantly, be able to act on it
Knowing when NOT to trade because you're not in the right frame of mind, AND most importantly, being able to take action to stop trading, is one of the most important risk management tools.  This was inspired by a video of Denise Shull, and I wrote a blog post about this last year. 

Recently, @thetradingwife said she passed up a good trade setup, simply because she felt emotions about that particular stock.  She recognized that due to a bad experience with the stock, she felt a level of emotion beyond her normal threshold, recognized it, and acted on it by making the decision not to take the trade.  It was simple and decisive.  For whatever reason, this was one of those defining moments that I'll always remember.

There have been so many times when I know I shouldn't trade, whether it's because I started the day with 2 losses in a row (a big daytrading revenge trigger for me), or because I'm sick, or my kids are causing trouble, or lack of sleep, or whatever.

Most of the time, I'm completely aware of my negative condition(s).  I tell myself exactly why I should not be trading.  However, in my mind, my mental chatter says, "I know I shouldn't take this trade, but screw it, I'm going to do it, I really don't care.  I'm going to make up my 3 previous losses with a huge winner.  So I'm going to do it.  [Click]"  That attitude is extremely toxic to trading.  Especially when your "screw it" attitude results in a winning trade, which further reinforces bad behavior.

Once those emotions are bubbling under the surface, that's a sign of danger to your P&L.  Having the awareness is one thing, but taking action so that you back off and actually stop trading is huge accomplishment.  To be able to stop trading means that means you have the ultimate risk management control over yourself.

Those with a I'M NOT A QUITTER attitude have an especially tough time, since taking this action of walking away feels like quitting.  I fall into that category and have had my fair share of P&L damaging revenge trades.  Roughly 25% of my 4,000+ trades in the past 2 years were revenge and/or rogue trades.  My statistics show that these were very poor trades.  Imagine if I had simply walked away from taking these trades. 

When under mental conditions of emotional distress where you've lost nearly all sense of self control (it's akin to driving drunk), backing away from trading is not quitting, it's protecting yourself (your capital) from harm's way. And protecting your capital is one of the most important goals of trading.

I have found that building awareness is key to gaining control of the mental game.  Awareness of: revenge triggers, strengths, trading style, best timeframe, any heightened emotions, when not to trade, and so on.  The ability to differentiate between impulse and revenge trades vs. intiutive trades is also a big milestone.  Initially, I thought there was a fine line between them.  In many ways, they are very similar, but factor in awareness, and there is a huge gap between them.

I've found that as I continue to become more aware of my own emotional triggers, and consequently more aware of the respective outcomes, a greater ability to take action based on my awareness is gained.  And because of that increased level of control over myself, I've become a lot more emotionally detached and accepting to many other aspects of trading.

The end result?  I've experienced improvement to my overall trading P&L and consistency.  But I still have a long journey ahead of me.  I'm looking forward the 3rd year. 

*  *  *  *  *

I'm looking forward to rereading these posts in 2 years and telling myself, "If I only knew back then what I know now."

Monday, April 29, 2013

2 Years of Trading - Lessons Learned (Part 2 of 3) - The Learning Process

[This is a continuation of the first blog post in the series:  LESSONS LEARNED (Part 1 of 3): TRADING FUNDAMENTALS]


LESSONS LEARNED (Part 2 of 3): THE LEARNING PROCESS

I wish I had done a consistently better job at keeping a trading journal
Who knows where I'd be now if I had a journaling system such as Tradervue many years ago.  As I've written about many times before, Tradervue is a powerful online trade journal system that has made it a lot easier to journal and to analyze the statistics of my trading

Or what if years ago before the Internet, I consistently journaled in a simple paper notebook and more importantly, had the discipline to review and take corrective action on a regular basis?  Would I have been able identify my strengths and find my style more quickly?  Could I have discovered how to achieve mental control more effectively?

Keeping a journal is something most say you should do, but writing about and having to relive a really bad day can be difficult. In many ways, this blog has been somewhat of a trading journal at times, but it has been far from consistent.  A true journal is one of those tough nitty gritty tasks that most people don't take seriously, and so I keep in mind that most people are not consistently successful traders.

There are no right or wrong ways of keeping a journal, although there are some good guidelines and templates out there.  But in the end, you should be able to understand why you are not (or are) following your trading plan, focus on areas of improvement, understand what your strengths are, improve awareness to know when you should and should not trade, etc.

Especially during the early formative period when the learning curve is steep, I believe keeping a journal is not an option, it's a must do.  As time passes and experience is gained, the nature of the trading journal also begins to evolve.

Paper trading is good, but I believe betting very small is better
There is much debate on whether paper trading is useful or not.  Once again, everyone is different.  For me, I believe learning with real money, even if very it's a small risk, is better than paper trading via a SIM account.  There's nothing like having real money on the line.

There have been times when I absolutely got killed on a % of account basis trading the ES E-mini.  Due to the tick size and average movement (rotations) in the ES, it's easy to go on tilt and lose over $1k trading only one contract.  Yes, been there a few times.  On another note, I always wonder why I never went on tilt and made over $1k trading one contract.

Other "trade small" solutions is to trade the spot forex, where you can trade in a "micro" size where each pip = about $1.  With some of the volatility recently in certain forex pairs, such as EUR/JPY, the movements are equivalent to the E-mini ES daily range of 30 to 50 points or more! 

Since I try to think in % terms, I've had sleepless nights swing trading spot forex, where my absolute dollar risk was only $30, but it was considered a big % risk based on my trading plan.  Conversely, in my longer term accounts, I could be risking many dozens of times more $'s and not lose a wink of sleep since it was a small % of risk relative to portfolio size.  Having those sleepless nights was when I knew that even betting small was much more realistic than trading on SIM.

Another option is to trade the E-micro EUR/USD (M6E) futures that trade on the CME.  Each tick is only $1.25, but the prices track the same as the big contract (6E).  For charting, you can still use the big 6E where the data isn't spotty like the M6E.  But by trading the micro contract, you'll still be able to trade with a small account, not worry about pattern day trading (PDT) as with stocks, and still have the ability to scale out of your positions by trading multiple contracts.

I wish a brokerage like Stage 5 Trading existed when I first started trading
I believe one of the best opportunities now, especially if you trade futures, is to open your account and start trading at Stage 5 Trading.  The core team at Stage 5 was previously with Vankar Trading, but have now started their own brokerage firm.  Full disclosure -- I'm not currently daytrading nor am I trading futures at this time, but I feel very strongly about the people at Stage 5 based on my experience with them.  They have earned my loyalty for when I one day return back to futures.

At Stage 5, you get access to FuturesTrader71 who is a master ES E-mini trader and is also a tireless and passionate educator.  One of the primary reasons why he became a broker was so that he can work more closely with his students and to be able to monitor their actual trades.

I've always wondered why FT71 gave so much, with what doesn't seem like much in return.  Wondered when the bait and switch would finally happen where he would monetize his followers?  What's the catch?  But the more I listened to him, it finally started to make sense that he has some deeply set values and beliefs about helping others, locked in the core of his being.  I've found this type of dedication rare, especially within the trading industry.

And right now, you'll be able to watch him as he is re-learning how to trade the E-Micro EUR/USD (M6E) futures through his active chatroom as well as weekly webinars.  He's relearning the Euro after many years, so this is a great opportunity to watch and understand how a master trader approaches a new product to trade.

He realizes that for those just learning to trade, the M6E is a great step up from SIM trading.  This is primarily due to the small $ per tick size and margin requirements.  Although his trading method is primarily volume profile based, his education transcends the trading methodology used, and a great deal of his focus (and his strength) is on the psychological side of trading.

Except for you to open your account and trade through Stage 5, there are no addition costs for the chatroom and webinars.  This is probably one of the best educational deals out there to learn from a highly respected trader and educator, while also getting some of the best service in the futures brokerage industry lead by Anthony Giacomin.  It's a no brainer. 

If I had to start now, I would do my best to learn on a physical trading floor surrounded by successful traders
Who wouldn't want that kind of opportunity?  I know this is much easier said than done.  But I'm confident that learning how to trade surrounded by successful prop traders who are great and willing mentors would accelerate and increase the odds of longer term success.

I'm not familiar with anyone who has joined the SMB training program and whether it's good or not, but something similar to that would have been very interesting for me when I was first starting.  Even if it didn't end up being a good fit, understanding what a trading environment is like and seeing successful traders in action would have been a valuable experience.

Back in the days before I had a family, if I had spent those 6-18 hour work days being surrounded and learning from the best in the business, where would I be now?  I'll never know and it's not my nature to dwell much on the past.

But looking forward, we now live in a world with zillions of chat rooms, newsletters, advisory services, blogs, and Twitter where you can learn independently or with others in a virtual setting.  Although you may have to look and research hard, there are a few great traders who are also great teachers (as mentioned earlier about FuturesTrader71).

So participating in a chatroom or joining forces with other traders in the virtual world is the next best thing to being on a physical trading floor.

Trade and learn with others
Being an independent retail trader from home can be quite the lonely business.  Back during my early attempts to be a trader, telephone calls were the only way to communicate with other traders.  And this was back in the days when long distance calls were $0.20+/minute on a land line.  When I started getting rates of $0.10/minute, I thought that was a steal.  Oh how times have changed.

Compared to even 10 years ago, our options to work, learn, and trade with others is amazing.  Webinar and screen sharing services, chatrooms, Skype, instant messaging, etc.  We may be physically isolated, but we have never been more close to others in the virtual world.

Through this blog, Twitter, and the various services and chatrooms that I have participated in over the past couple years, I have been very fortunate to have met some amazing people from all over the world.  Many have become great friends that I communicate with on a regular basis, constantly learning and sharing ideas about the markets. 

For me, surrounded by like minded traders have made the good times even better and the bad times not quite as bad.  And as physically isolated as I may be, being a part of a community has never made me feel as if I were alone.  Trading is a tough endeavor, even tougher when going through the unavoidable slumps, so having that support network to trade, learn and just be there for others is vital for growth and survival.

Twitter is a "double edged sword"
As of this post, Twitter is "only" about 7 years old, but the impact it has had on trading and investing is enormous.  When I first learned about trading, I had to go to the library at the university to checkout books and read back issues of Commodities (now Futures) Magazine on microfiche.  I still recall the old books by Stanley Kroll wrote as some of my favorites.

Today, who needs the library (hurts me to say that) since the Internet has changed this all.  Recently, Twitter has become an amazing source of real time trading information that has truly changed the landscape of trading.  But a potential downside to Twitter is that it's like drinking from a fire hose.  It can become so overwhelming and conflicting that it becomes noise and impedes our ability to learn.

Here are some random tidbits I've learned through Twitter over the past couple years:
  1. Big # of followers ≠ a great follow.  Some of the best follows are up and coming with surprisingly few followers
  2. When someone usually active stops tweeting, they're likely losing
  3. Observed trend: Get a big Twitter following, start a subscription service, then cash in.  Get 100 (or more) subs at $100 (or more) a month and that's some decent money -- easier than trading!
  4. There are some that just can't use Twitter and trade effectively due to excessive noise 
  5. Twitter wars (arguments) prove that some of us never quite grow up.  
For those moving ahead with leveraging Twitter, if used methodically with the proper filters and context, it can be an incredible way to learn about trading.  Managing your following list often is essential to provide focus based on what you're trying to learn or monitor without going overboard.  And you should also monitor to what level of effort you are able to write tweets, without impacting your primary job as a trader.

Great talking head Great trader ≠ Great teacher

Staying along the topic of Twitter, someone who produces great tweets breaking down and analyzing the markets does not necessarily mean they are a great trader or a great teacher.  There are many who call the markets accurately, but when it comes to executing their plans, their trading leaves much to be desired. 

I have a strong suspicion that most of the elite traders don't tweet much, if at all.  And those on Twitter may not be very active or tweet only non-trading related topics, or simply don't want to be known.  Many might even be a someone who is a terrible teacher or poor communicator.  Even if you find a great trader who actively communicates and makes great returns a year, they might not even trade similar to your style.

And except for entertainment purposes (which Twitter is great for) I'm not quite sure how actionable following a great talking head (such as those that appear on CNBC regularly) are for a trader.  Many of those who sound great with an impressive pedigree and/or ivory tower vibes followed by 10's of thousands on Twitter don't ever seem to be wrong, just like economists!

Looking back on their calls, most don't seem to be that much more accurate beyond random chance.  But the bravado and confidence at which they make their predictions makes for good entertainment.  There's a lot of ego out there in Twitter-land.  So those who regularly admit to trades that ended up as losses are to be respected.

Therefore, I believe it's most important to try and find people that you can learn from -- on or off Twitter.  What matters is that they possess some knowledge that is valuable to you, and whether they are a good teacher by communicating in a way that resonates with you.

Learning is a process that should never stop
In order to remain successful, I believe it's important to establish some process that helps us to learn most effectively and then always strive to learn more.  If we ever reach the point where we truly believe we think know all we can about something (like trading), then that's when we have essentially quit -- the game is over and we will begin to fail.  By making the process of learning a regular and continuous part of our lives (not just trading), we will help put success on our side.


The next post in this series is:  LESSONS LEARNED (Part 3 of 3): THE MENTAL GAME

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Deep dive trading journal analysis - March 2012

As I was wallowing in my rogue trading day hangover earlier this weekend wondering what I'm going to do next, I realized a big gap in my overall trading process.  I wasn't doing my homework of reviewing and analyzing my trades via my trading journal.

I got somewhat lazy and didn't even realize it.  I have been diligently adding tags and notes to each one of my trading entries in my Tradervue online trading journal, but I wasn't going back and analyzing which setups were working and which were not.  I had yet another one of those "no duhhhh" moments.

Over the past year, I have updated over 2,000 records in my Tradervue trading journal.  The majority of the trades have been evaluated and updated with specific tags which provide the ability for me to use Tradervue to quickly slice and dice various types of reports and analysis on my trading performance. 

I started performing this type of analysis using Tradervue for my equity trades last year to discovery my strengths, but since switching over to trading futures in October, my transition to update the tags on my trading record was a little slow.  I wasn't sure how to tag the records since the trading methodology between stocks and futures were so different. 

But now that I have stabilized around a certain trading style over the past several months, I'm finally able to update my trading records effectively in a way that can generate meaningful reports and metrics.  So this weekend, I started to crank out the preliminary numbers, starting with March 2012.

I am taking the first big step in doing some meaningful homework, so that I can begin trading based on probabilities and gain confidence.  Big credit goes to FT71 on hammering home that concept based on his great webinars and his Vankar Trading brokerage service, as well as to Chris, Matt, and Cindy for constant feedback and reinforcement.  I think I'm finally starting to "get it" through my thick skill, although I know I still have a long journey ahead.

High level trading statistics
All of the output below was generated with Tradervue with the results output to Excel.  The setups that begin with "30m..." are setups based on Renato's Diamond Setups system.  It's clear to see that he has taught me a system capable of generated solid performance, assuming I have the discipline to "simply" follow the plan. 

To see the Legend, please see the report under the "Additional Details" section below.
And here's the summary of the "P&L killer" (NOTE: The Revenge/Rogue tags are not mutually exclusive so there IS some overlap.  Therefore, aggregating the results is not valid.)

Summary - the DENSE version
  • DISCLAIMER:  My trades have a lot of selection bias -- there are many trades that I do NOT take because I'm either not around, or I see some sort of conflict with another timeframe, or...  Therefore, these results are a reflection of my particular style and tendencies, and other traders using the same methodology may or may not experience the same outcomes.
  • My sample size for March is relatively small (n=113); I know there are some data entry errors; and there is overlap of certain tags/setups/metric; so take with some grain of salt!  Consider this "relative" comparisons and analysis.
  • I could have had a somewhat profitable month with gains of about $700 gross / +14.00 ES points over 66 trades, if I followed my trading plan (Followed plan = YES and YES/NO). 
  • However, the 30mDS7 setup was one particular setup that just didn't work well.  It lost -$637.50 / -12.75 ES points over 11 trades.  I had no idea.  Renato has always said he doesn't like the DS7 setups to enter trades except on higher timeframes -- I should have listened!  (Thick skull syndrome)
  • Excluding the 30mDS7 setup, it would have been a respectable month following the plan with profits of $1,587.50 / +31.75 ES points over 50 trades.
  • The new setups I took (TL, C2E, and SCALP) had a negative impact on my execution score since they are not a part of my trading plan.  But they generally did pretty well and generated $+1212.50 / +24.25 ES points over 31 trades (note that some of these also overlapped with the 30m setups). 
  • The new setups group was also included in the Followed Plan = NO. Therefore, that category would have been much worse without these profitable trades (see Revenge and Rogue trades for a better figure on what happens with the plan is not followed...$-1912.50 / -38.25 ES points over 43 trades!).
  • Renato started to teach scalp trades in his Diamond Setups room last week and they did surprisingly well.  However, note that I didn't exit with a profit at +1.00 for every trade as per his rules, so my average profits might be slightly higher.  But the 88.9% accuracy was surprisingly high.
  • Revenge and Rogue trades KILLED my performance.  Sure, there were a few good winners in there that tricked my mind to keep taking them.  But overall, as a group, they stank REALLY BAD.  Same issue I had last summer.
Summary - the SIMPLE version 
  • YMMV (your millage may vary) 
  • Don't take setups in red font, they are not good for me 
  • Take setups in green font, they reflect my strengths and are good for me Remember that these setups can easily scale up to 50-100 ES contracts or more 
  • When I get the urge to go rogue/revenge, run a report on Tradervue of all those yuck trades, and take deep breaths.  Or just take a few shots of Jägermeister and call it a day. 
  • Keep doing this homework on my stats for constant reinforcement, at least once every 2 weeks
Additional Details
This report also breaks down summary results earlier by the particular type of setup that took place (first touch, retouch, reverse play).

One observation I'll closely watch is how well the "Reverse Play" setup worked in comparison to others.  I've always had a feeling they worked well, and now I have some limited stats to prove it.

There is also a legend in the report below.