Monday, January 23, 2012

Adapt or die

Total gross profits:  $-337.50  -6.75 ES points
Total trades:  9  [0 scratch]
Accuracy:  33.3%
Execution score: 100.0%
Opportunity cost: +$0  +0 ES points 

A tough way to start the week, and the shape of the P&L curve today brought back the ugly memories of Tuesday, December 20th.  But unlike that day, I was in a good frame of mind today and executed my trading plan well. 

However, no system or methodology or person is perfect in all market conditions -- we all have our good days and bad.  The usual explanations (excuses) apply to this particular day, as I've already done so many other times....stop hit to the tick, target hit but no fill, blah blah blah....

After enough experiences recently with days that don't click well with my particular trading strategy, today was a day that hit a nerve which said, I need to start expanding my vision.  My thoughts posted yesterday regarding a sense of complacency was also in the back of my mind.  And then Renato posted a quote today which said:

"The market is constantly changing, we have to adapt or die."

I sincerely believe that if given a specific trading plan, I can execute it very well.  But what if it's a plan that's not best suited for the current conditions?  No matter how perfectly I execute it, the outcome will leave a lot to be desired (or lots of red ink).

So it's time to start considering the incorporation of other elements into my plan, to primarily help adjust and accommodate for changing market conditions.  There were many instances today when I "knew" that my signals were not necessarily ideal, but I still went ahead and executed them just so that I could say I was disciplined.

Although I have put "Rogue Grove" in a somewhat negative light within this blog, I believe there's a way to utilize the thousands of hours of valuable study and screen time that I have gained through the years, by allowing his "good side" to have a greater voice in my trading.  As destructive as his bad side can be, he also has a brilliant side that has scrambled out of many more deep losses than not.  That's the side I need to isolate and capitalize on.

How will I do this, and how "discretionary" do I really want to become?  I don't know, but by writing my thoughts, I'm hoping that more ideas will eventually surface.  As a start, before implementing anything, I believe I should continue to perform the daily analysis of "What would Rogue Grove have done?", and then evaluate how that may or may not have impacted my current trading plan.  This process will be a calculated evolution, based on the analysis of data, and carefully implemented, so that I don't go back to the old days when Rogue Grove ruled and went wild.


Tomross58 said...

Hey Grove,,

Excellent thoughts here as you are discovering many things about yourself and your trading. Main thing I see is progress. Slow but steady. I think like any relationship or partnetship you can find a happy medium between what you are talking about and ultimitely you will find YOUR style. Seems to me as you meld the two styles of trading ( new with old ) you can take the best of the best.
Of course eveything I say here are just my thoughts but these are the same things I have noticed about myself since joining Rena. Much more disciplined which cannot and must not be compromised. No revenge trades. EVER,,,,EVER,,,Did I mention no REVENGE trades ever ?
I havent heard you mention revenge trades in quite a while,,,(high five).
You mentioned all the studying and learning you have done in the past and whether we know it or not we have learned more than we realize. From your past ( Pre-Rena ) you know what works and what does not. I think we both understand that in trading,,,,less can be more. Let the trade come to us.
Its funny but just the last couple days last week these thoughts started coming to me also and I have adapted some of Good Tom into my trading,,,lol,,,and I like it. For me I find that when I have alone time and can think clearly I go over my trading and try to make improvements. The reason for this for me is that I am trying to have answers for myself while I can go over everything and come up with a solution, then when in a trade,,,(my hope is) that I have already done the thinking or decision making,,,,hope that makes sense and I am still a work in progress. Great post as you are not alone.


Grove Under said...

Hi Tom,

Great feedback, much appreciated. But I'm really happy to hear that the Renato effect of increased discipline and no revenge trades has also rubbed off on you!

Just getting those aspects of trading under control are such big factors of successful trading. So with those challenges less of a negative factor, we're one big step closer to becoming much better traders.

Keep up the great progress, and thanks again!