Total trades: 7 [0 scratch]
Execution score: 100.0%
Opportunity cost: +$0 +0 ES points
It used to love trend days
Trend days don't happen often, I believe around 10%, give or take, depending on who you talk to and how they define a trend day. But if you catch the right day, and you enter a trade using something as simple as a 30 minute opening range breakout, then hold on to your position and exit market on close, a day such as today would have produced decent results with minimal effort.
That was then, this is now: Be aware (or beware?) of trend days
However, when trading based on key support and resistance levels, there's a possibility that you might get stuck trying to continuously short in an uptrend day (or vice versa). I fell a little into this trap today, was down about 6 ES points at one point, but was able to scramble and dig myself out to almost b/e.
So now I find myself trying more frequently to identify whether the day is developing into a trend day or not, so that I don't get chopped up and waste emotional capital fighting the trend. I'm getting better at:
- Identifying the possibility of a trend day sooner rather than later, BUT...
- Incorporating that bias to adjust my trading plan is something I need to work on
Another area for improvement is to track missed trades. For example, today, I had at least 4 trades that I missed, either because I was not around to take them (time limitations), I simply missed them (was not prepared), or I avoided them (couldn't pull the trigger or decided to pass).
In the past, I didn't give missed trades much weight. But to know that I could have been up +6.00 by the time the NY session opened, does raise a lot of questions. There was also another trade or two that I missed during the day, so all told, let's just say that I had "Missed Trade Costs" of at least +8 ES points.
Since my discipline of executing against my plan has improved significantly, once I maintain this level of discipline for this week and next, I will begin tracking the "Missed Trade Costs" so that I can better determine if there was anything I could have done to capture a greater % of those trades. Just based on past anecdotal evidence, I believe that missed trades can account for a very large % of a day's potential profits.
Bottom line: I'm going make sure I leave as little as possible on the table by the end of the day.