Thursday, April 19, 2012

Update: $AUDUSD short from 3/26

Hard to believe I haven't been shaken out of the $AUDUSD swing short at 1.0521 from 3/26, but assuming I don't jinx myself due to this post and get stopped out within minutes once this post goes live, I'll continue to hold this until I get a clear signal that the move is over or until it approaches one of the targets in my original post.
$AUDUSD - 240m chart
One thought I had based on the chart above is how relatively large the swings have been (> 100 pips) since I entered this trade (nice opportunity), vs. the absolute P&L I currently have.  On a risk/return basis, I'm over 4R on this trade (currently about +175 pips, original risk = 40 pips) and was as high as 7.5R at one time.

When I look at all the swings, they add up to well over 1,000 pips, so I can't help but think what if I was able to capture just 25% of those moves?  Yes, probably faulty thinking, especially since I could have been stopped out within minutes once I entered this trade, or perhaps this could have dropped nearly straight down to parity instead of going somewhat sideways.  But I can't help but imagine the possibilities.

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