It was a long week, but one that ended on a relatively good note.
Friday, November 18
Total gross profits: $587.50 +11.75 ES points
[SIM adjusted gross profits: $325.00] +6.50
Total trades: 14 [1 scratch, 7 losses]
Contracts per trade: 1
An OPEX day that ended on a fizzle. I stopped trading by 2:00 PM when it became slow. But there were enough decent swings
earlier in the day that allowed certain trades to run, as well as choppy areas where the
DS levels did well to capture scalp trades. Yet another experimentation
day, focusing primarily on the whether to use the profit target or not.
No +2.00 profit targets on some trades
Today, I decided to lift the +2.00 profit targets for certain trades
"felt" as though they had room to run. The result? My percentage
accuracy went down considerably and overall average profit per trade
(expectancy) remained relatively the same as a good scalping day. But
the average $'s of winning trades went up considerably. Why? I had a
few trades that ran a decent amount. For example, I had one trade go
+6.25 and another that went +8.00.
The primary criteria I used when allowing a trade to run was whether it
was near the highs/lows of the day, and/or whether it is considered a
significant area due to key trendlines. These criteria in confluence
with DS levels seem to provide a better than average opportunity for a
trade to run beyond a typical scalp.
In this chart to the right, it's clear to see that rationale behind some of the trades were allowed to run without a +2 profit target order.
So the question remains, what style works best for me?
Since starting to trade earlier this year, a certain pattern I've
tracked is that I am very impatient to enter a trade, but once I'm in a
trade, I'm almost too patient to stay on board.
Therefore, I usually don't have the tendency to exit a profitable trade
too early, but instead, I tend to overstay my welcome. This works very well on
those small percentage of trades that end up running far, but in most
instances, I'll let a profitable trade stop me out with a scratch or a
I believe my ability to hold onto profitable intraday trades is a
strength, and so I'll have to factor that into my overall trading
strategy. I'm willing to sacrifice winning accuracy in order to let
certain trades run, because I feel that having those types of trades provides me with a sense of accomplishment.
And finally, are my SIM adjustments too tough?
As I continue to apply my SIM adjustments to the daily trade record, I
wonder if I'm being too penalizing to my initial gross figures. One thought
that's crossing my mind is whether I just need to trade live again to
find out once and for all. Earlier this month, I had to trade live just
to see how the real fills will be. But that ended in a mini-disaster,
so perhaps I should wait a little longer! In the meantime, I'll just be extra conservative, and will continue to calculate my SIM results as I have been.