Friday, November 18
Total gross profits: $587.50 +11.75 ES points
[SIM adjusted gross profits: $325.00] +6.50
Total trades: 14 [1 scratch, 7 losses]
Accuracy: 42.9%
Contracts per trade: 1
NOTES:An OPEX day that ended on a fizzle. I stopped trading by 2:00 PM when it became slow. But there were enough decent swings earlier in the day that allowed certain trades to run, as well as choppy areas where the DS levels did well to capture scalp trades. Yet another experimentation day, focusing primarily on the whether to use the profit target or not.
No +2.00 profit targets on some trades
Today, I decided to lift the +2.00 profit targets for certain trades that "felt" as though they had room to run. The result? My percentage accuracy went down considerably and overall average profit per trade (expectancy) remained relatively the same as a good scalping day. But the average $'s of winning trades went up considerably. Why? I had a few trades that ran a decent amount. For example, I had one trade go +6.25 and another that went +8.00.
The primary criteria I used when allowing a trade to run was whether it was near the highs/lows of the day, and/or whether it is considered a significant area due to key trendlines. These criteria in confluence with DS levels seem to provide a better than average opportunity for a trade to run beyond a typical scalp.
In this chart to the right, it's clear to see that rationale behind some of the trades were allowed to run without a +2 profit target order.So the question remains, what style works best for me?
Since starting to trade earlier this year, a certain pattern I've tracked is that I am very impatient to enter a trade, but once I'm in a trade, I'm almost too patient to stay on board.
Therefore, I usually don't have the tendency to exit a profitable trade too early, but instead, I tend to overstay my welcome. This works very well on those small percentage of trades that end up running far, but in most instances, I'll let a profitable trade stop me out with a scratch or a small loss.
I believe my ability to hold onto profitable intraday trades is a strength, and so I'll have to factor that into my overall trading strategy. I'm willing to sacrifice winning accuracy in order to let certain trades run, because I feel that having those types of trades provides me with a sense of accomplishment.
And finally, are my SIM adjustments too tough?
As I continue to apply my SIM adjustments to the daily trade record, I wonder if I'm being too penalizing to my initial gross figures. One thought that's crossing my mind is whether I just need to trade live again to find out once and for all. Earlier this month, I had to trade live just to see how the real fills will be. But that ended in a mini-disaster, so perhaps I should wait a little longer! In the meantime, I'll just be extra conservative, and will continue to calculate my SIM results as I have been.
5 comments:
I wouldn't consider this an either/or decision, but only a current state predicated on the fact that you are working with one contract.
Once you have multiple contracts, you can scale partial at your first target to improve your average entry price, then let the remainder run. Optimizing the exits for those remainders will fatten your profit tail.
Good work on being patient.
Hi Jeff,
That's a great point, something I totally overlooked while writing this last night (I was probably too tired!).
One of the my goals is to be able to get up to 4 contracts, so that I can scale out in a reasonable manner, and have that ability to let one run for those big wins every once in a while.
Thanks for the feedback and reminder, much appreciated!
Hey Grove
I have to say thats petty good results with just one contract. It also sounds like you held to your stop losses AND maximized some of your potiential profits. I see you had a scratch trade and maybe a couple small winners but did you feel the "need" to revenge trade? I didnt see you mention that once.
As mentioned once you are able to add size you can work the trade in your favor. I am going to work on that also, thanks
Tom
Hi Tom,
Usually, when I start off when a few losses, things do get a little ugly more often than not with revenge trading.
In this case, I ended up getting in a trade that looked like it might run, and then letting it go.
Looking back, this was my way of "revenge" trading -- to go for a big win to offset the losses, and I was lucky. I'll have to continue to try and figure out what the right balance should be with regards to letting a trade run with 1 contract.
Experimentation continues, although I'm winding down for the holiday week. Thanks for the comment, and good luck!
Hi Tom,
Usually, when I start off when a few losses, things do get a little ugly more often than not with revenge trading.
In this case, I ended up getting in a trade that looked like it might run, and then letting it go.
Looking back, this was my way of "revenge" trading -- to go for a big win to offset the losses, and I was lucky. I'll have to continue to try and figure out what the right balance should be with regards to letting a trade run with 1 contract.
Experimentation continues, although I'm winding down for the holiday week. Thanks for the comment, and good luck!
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