After 2 weeks, a good start

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Total gross profits:  $412.50  +8.25 ES points
Total trades:  1
Accuracy:  100.0%
Execution score: 50.0%
Opportunity cost: $87.50  +1.75 ES points

My first trade in over 2 weeks ended up being a decent trade, with primary credit to @RenaTrader and his timely Diamond Setups alert.   

(Feb 23-09:25) RenaTrader: SUP 1351.25-49.50 

Once again, he called the high/low of the day.  This will never get old.

Since my buy was filled at 1351.00, I was fortunate to get filled 3 ticks from the low of the day.  And if I did not have to leave early, I probably would have let my trade reach the original profit target at 1361.00, which would have generated a +10.00 trade (as luck would have it, 1361.00 was hit about 10 minutes after I exited my trade). 

The importance of the first hour
One of the reasons why I let this trade run for so long is because I recently saw a statistic that about half of the time, the HOD or LOD gets established within the first hour.  And since this entry seemed to be at an extreme point, it knew it would either be the low of the day, or else I would try and scratch the trade.  I was lucky.

RTH vs. 24h pivot levels
Another interesting observation was that the 24h pivot levels were "in tune" today.  On some days, the RTH pivots seem to work better, but today, that was not the case.  Many would argue that the RTH pivots are more important, since that's what the cash session is based on.  But I really don't care, I monitor both, and will use whatever method the market decides to sync with. 

Confluence of levels
It's also interesting to see when levels from various methods all seem to line up.  Today, I saw Diamond Setups, volume profile, pivot levels, chart patterns, and trendlines, all line up at certain levels.  And when you also factor in the magnetic influence of the pivot levels which then create the "Ping Pong Pivots" effect (going from one level to another), today ended up being an interesting day.

Tomorrow is another day, and what I did today will not matter one bit.  So what's important now is that I be very selective with my trade selection, and work slowly at getting my rhythm back.