Friday, February 24, 2012

$EURUSD swing short entered today at 1.3448

Today, I entered a swing short at 1.3448 in EURUSD, due to the following reasons:

  • There were at least 4 different Fib levels based on various waves that converged on the 1.3435 to 1.3475 area.
  • And something much less tangible -- it seems to have been a while since the Eurozone has really announced some really ugly news. Perhaps this weekend?
$EURUSD daily chart as of 2/24/2012
I've seen various other analysis demonstrating compelling reasons for why the EURUSD is going much higher.  And if this was an intraday chart, I'd say a reversal bottom has been sent, would look to buy on dips, and target new highs.

But I'd rather not miss a potential move, so I'm generally early to enter trades and am used to getting stopped out a few times before getting on board a big runner.  Risking about 30-50 pips in order to get a few hundred pips is my general setup for forex swing trades.

Odds favor that I get stopped out above 1.3500, which is just the cost of doing business.  But assuming this trade works, the initial target will be the 1.3100 area, with a final target around the 1.2800 level.

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